Nearly there? Power-sharing deal ‘imminent’

By Elisha Shamba

Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe and his rival opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai arrived at a Harare hotel on Monday for make-or-break power-sharing talks to end the country’s crisis.

Mugabe, accompanied by Zimbabwe Defence Force Commander Constantine Chiwenga, entered

the building without making any comment. Asked whether the discussions would conclude today, Tsvangirai said, “I hope so.”

Arthur Mutambara, the head of a smaller opposition faction, also arrived for the talks, which are being mediated by South African President Thabo Mbeki.The meetings follow a day’s worth of talks in the same location on Sunday that ended with Mugabe declaring he was “confident” a deal was within reach.

Sources close to the talks, mediated by South Africa’s president, Thabo Mbeki, said there remained significant differences over key issues that will decide whether Mugabe retains real control of the government, in effect overturning Tsvangirai’s victory in the March presidential election. Mbeki was pushing for an agreement that would not only resolve Zimbabwe’s crisis but permit him to claim that his strategy of quiet diplomacy, derided in the west as a failure, was ultimately successful.

In June, Mbeki proposed that Mugabe remain as a titular president, after 28 years in total control, with executive powers transferred to Tsvangirai as prime minister. Mugabe went into yesterday’s meeting determined not to cede most of his powers, while Tsvangirai argued that he won a mandate to govern from the people in the March election – the last one widely considered to be largely legitimate.

Tsvangirai’s Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) said before the talks that while it would accept Mugabe in a ceremonial role, if he were to retain significant powers it would reward his Zanu-PF party’s campaign of killings, beatings, abductions and rapes that broke opposition support in a second round of elections in June.

Among the other issues in dispute is the composition of the cabinet. Mugabe wants it to have 36 ministers, with Zanu-PF and the MDC holding 15 seats each and the remaining six held by a breakaway faction of the MDC headed by Arthur Mutambara. Tsvangirai wants a smaller cabinet and Mutambara to have only two seats. Zanu-PF is keen for a large number of cabinet seats in part because party leaders see sitting in government as a means of perpetuating their patronage and ensuring they are not prosecuted for past crimes.

There is also wrangling over who will hold the most powerful portfolios. The MDC is anxious to control the ministries that oversee the police and intelligence services, believing that they are the key to ensuring that future elections are free and fair after the two organisations were roped in to the violent and bloody state-orchestrated campaign against opposition supporters.

Tsvangirai is less concerned about winning control over the army, which the opposition believes will be loyal to the government of the day. The two parties also disagree over how long the incoming administration will serve. The MDC wants it to sit for about two years, during which a new constitution will be written and elections held.

Zanu-PF favours a government serving a full five-year term, in part because if another ballot is held in the near future the party is likely to suffer a devastating defeat, while several years from now Zimbabweans may be less enamoured of the MDC, after they have seen it in power.

Tsvangirai holds a number of important cards in the talks. There will be no significant financial aid from the west to stabilise Zimbabwe’s economy amid hyperinflation expected to rise to 50,000,000% this month, without a significant shift in power to the MDC leader. Britain, the US and the EU have all said that a £1bn aid package will only be released if Mugabe relinquishes control of the government.

Some of those who have backed Tsvangirai fear he may be desperate to become prime minister and give too much away.

Any political deal reached would require a green light from from security and military chiefs, according to analysts.They would sway over Mugabe and will want immunity from international prosecution when the dust settles.

It could also be argued that Mbeki needs an agreement as much as Tsvangirai in order to justify his much-criticised Zimbabwe policy and regain some of his rapidly eroding political credibility at home. Mbeki is hosting a regional summit in South Africa on Saturday. helping secure a settlement before then could be a political coup for the leader. He has been criticised for not taking a tough line with Mugabe, a policy he argued would only deepen tensions.

‘Zimbabwe not for sale’

However in his national address for Heroes’ Day ahead of a new round of power-sharing talks with his political rivals Mugabe said his country “was not for sale” and “will never be a colony again”, while warning the opposition not to be “used by enemies

“Let’s not hand over the country to the enemy,” he warned.

“If you are on the enemy’s side or you are being used by enemies, stop it … It cannot just be unity in vain — a hollow unity,” the 84-year-old leader said, addressing the audience in both Shona and English.

“It must be unity guided by basic principles. Principles that will solidify us, strengthen us.”

He added in the address in honour of those who died in the guerrilla war that led to the country’s independence: “Zimbabwe is not for sale and Zimbabwe will never be a colony again.”

Mugabe has often sought to portray opposition Movement for Democratic Change leader Morgan Tsvangirai as a stooge of former colonial power Britain, though his rhetoric has cooled in recent weeks with the two sides engaged in talks.
He said “when somebody makes you turn against each other, you don’t say we are no longer family members.”

Mugabe, himself a hero of the independence struggle, also declared “we will die for our legacy.”

“Fighting in self-defence is not a sin. So we fight to protect our legacy.”

Mugabe “congratulated all the parties to the negotiations for exhibiting this sense of collective and shared responsibility,” while thanking Mbeki, calling him “a very patient man.”

“We spent all night yesterday in discussions and some of the things that were holding back, at times I nearly raised my fist, but he remained cool.”

Meanwhile Zanu PF’s weekly newspaper, The Voice carried a front page story declaring that Mugabe would not relinquish executive power. While Tsvangirai easily won the first round of the Presidential elections on March 29 and the MDC deprived the ruling party of its parliamentary majority, there has been no handover of authority.