(MRN) – It’s over at last. After a surreal week of wheeling and dealing between the three major parties – none of which had secured an overall majority in the general election last Thursday – the new Lib Dem / Conservative government is now settling around the cabinet table in Number 10.

Over the past few days I’ve had my fingers crossed that, as part of negotiations with Labour and the Tories, the Lib Dems would manage to bring some of their pragmatic proposals on immigration (developing a regional economic migration policy, holding an amnesty, and an end to child detention in particular) to the table… whichever table they ended up at, that is.

The Lib Dem / Conservative coalition agreement, released yesterday and detailing the coalition’s key policy plans for the coming five years, shows that this may have been optimistic. Many of the most interesting Lib Dem immigration and asylum proposals seem to have been shelved – for now? – in the interests of forming the coalition government.

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President Robert Mugabe has shrugged off the former opposition’s boycott of Zimbabwe’s unity government, saying he would not yield to pressure to make concessions, state media reported on Saturday.

Mugabe and his former opposition foe, Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai, formed a power-sharing government in February to end a political stalemate that followed last year’s elections.

A new crisis hit the government last week when Tsvangirai and his MDC party said it would stop attending cabinet meetings in protest against the arrest of a senior official and Mugabe’s refusal to implement a political pact in full.

In his first public comments on the matter, Mugabe said his party had fulfilled its part of the agreement and he would not to yield to MDC pressure, according to the state-controlled Herald newspaper.

“The matters the people are complaining about in the MDC are that we should now voluntarily … give away aspects of our authority. We will not do that,” Mugabe was quoted saying.

“They (MDC) can go to any summit, any part of the world to appeal. That will not happen.”

Mugabe added that he did not believe the unity government faced collapse.

“I do not read that they would want to leave the inclusive government. I think they will come back to it soon.”

The Herald said Mugabe and Tsvangirai would resume their weekly meetings on Monday to try to end the impasse.

Tsvangirai, who has been on a regional tour to seek help from leaders who brokered the power-sharing deal, told reporters in Angola on Friday his dispute with Mugabe was a temporary setback that would not lead to the collapse of the pact.

(Reporting by Nelson Banya, editing by Andrew Dobbie)

Whatever their differences, Zimbabwe stands at the last crossroads; the country’s future has never looked bleaker and the adoption of Amendment 19 never more important.

What is Amendment 19 of the Zimbabwe Constitution?

Amendment 19 will bring into law a power-sharing deal signed between President Robert Mugabe, leader of the ZANU-PF party, Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), and Arthur Mutambara, an MDC breakaway party, on 15 September 2008.

Why is it important?

There is no “Plan B” for a political settlement in Zimbabwe and the country is staring into the void of a failed state. The once prosperous southern African country endures the highest inflation rate in history, estimated at 89.7 sextillion percent, or 89,700,000,000,000,000,000,000 percent, by the Cato Institute, a non-profit public policy research foundation based in Washington, in the US.

Photo: IRIN

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The collapse of services like health, sanitation and water has been the catalyst for a widespread cholera outbreak that has claimed the lives of nearly 1,000 people since August, with few signs of the disease abating.

About 5.1 million people, or nearly half the population, require food aid, and little respite is expected from the March 2009 harvest. Soldiers, one of the last redoubts of Mugabe’s 28-year rule, have rioted, and abductions of political activists, allegedly by government security agents, continue.

The migration of citizens to neighbouring states remains one-way traffic. More than 3 million people, or a quarter of the population, are thought to have left Zimbabwe in the last decade for neighbouring states like South Africa and Botswana, or further afield for Britain, Australia and the US. There is fear that Mugabe will declare a state of emergency in a final showdown with the opposition and other political dissidents before Amendment 19 is promulgated.

When will the amendment be passed?

Amendment 19 was printed in the government gazette on 13 December 2008. The soonest the amendment could be on the statute books, should it have a smooth passage through Zimbabwe’s rough political waters, is mid-January 2009. Its adoption requires a two-thirds majority in parliament.

What are the major pitfalls?

The MDC are demanding that a legal basis for the National Security Council (NSC) – which will replace the Joint Operations Command (JOC), comprised of the army, police and intelligence chiefs loyal to Mugabe – be nailed down before the amendment is tabled in parliament. Such an agreement will give the MDC a major stake in the NSC, enabling it to thwart “unlawful” activities, whereas previously it played no role in the JOC.

Other concerns that the MDC has are the apportioning of ministerial portfolios between the parties, which hit a wall over who controls Home Affairs, and through it the police; the reappointment of provincial governors to reflect the party holding the majority of MPs in each province; and the return of all diplomats, and their replacement in terms of the power-sharing agreement.

How will the 19 Amendment affect the balance of power?

The amendment not only imposes checks and balances, but Mugabe will have to cooperate with Tsvangirai in running the country. There is no love lost between the two men.

Executive powers will be divided between an office of the president, held by Mugabe, and a newly created prime ministerial position, held by Tsvangirai.

The president will be invested with such powers as declaring war, making peace, proclaiming and terminating martial law, granting pardons, chairing the cabinet and NSC, appointing independent constitutional commissions and, in consultation with the prime minister, making key appointments “under and in terms of the Constitution or any Act of Parliament”.

The president will head cabinet, which will be responsible for formulating policy. The prime minister will chair the Council of Ministers, comprised of all ministers, and responsible for implementation. He will be deputy chair of the cabinet, a member of the NSC, and report regularly to both the president and parliament.

The creation of a prime minister’s office is designed to establish both a counterbalance to Mugabe’s rule and give the MDC a major stake in government, although it is feared this could easily lead to two centres of power and even less cohesion.

The nuts and bolts of the power-sharing deal

Mugabe will appoint two vice-presidents, while Tsvangirai will appoint two deputy prime ministers, one of which will be Mutambara, leader of the MDC breakaway party.

There will be 31 cabinet ministers, 15 nominated by ZANU-PF, 13 appointed by Tsvangirai’s MDC and three by Mutambara’s MDC. Each party may also appoint a maximum of three ministers from outside parliament, who will have the right to engage in parliamentary debates but will not be entitled to vote. The parties will agree on the equitable distribution of ministerial portfolios.

What happens in by-elections?

For 12 months from the promulgation of Amendment 19, and in consideration of election violence, any vacancies arising in local government or parliament can only be contested by the party that previously held the seat. In the March 2008 elections, the opposition parties won 111 seats in the 210-seat parliament, while ZANU-PF took 99.

Has the deal engendered greater trust?

The straight answer is ‘no’. The state-run daily newspaper, The Herald, continues to routinely insult and attack the MDC as stooges of the West (US and Britain) who are bent on re-colonising the country, and Mugabe’s public speeches maintain the same theme. MDC activists and civil society continue to bear the brunt of state repression.

What is the best-case scenario?

The amendment is adopted in January 2009. A provision in it allows for a new constitution to be drafted to replace the current constitution, and leads to elections in two years, in an environment conducive to free and fair elections.

What is the worst-case scenario?

The amendment is not adopted. The Zimbabwe failed state manifests itself in yet more political violence, widespread disease and hunger, accelerated migration and the destabilisation of the region.

Sources: Institute of Security Studies, Sokwanele, The Herald, MDC, IRIN

Morgan Tsvangirai addressed reporters after talks with President Robert Mugabe ended late Friday evening without resolving the impasse that has left Zimbabwe rudderless.

Former South African President Thabo Mbeki has been mediating talks since Tuesday.

Mbeki brokered a Sept. 15 deal between Mugabe and Tsvangirai to form a unity government. The opposition narrowly won March parliamentary elections.

But the formation of the new government has been delayed over disagreements on the allocation of Cabinet posts. The opposition has accused Mugabe of trying to hold onto too many key posts.

“Regrettably after four days of intense negotiations we have failed to agree on the first key issue which is the allocation of key portfolios and therefore a deadlock has been declared,” Tsvangirai said.

Mugabe, who left the Harare hotel where talks have been taking place a little later, did not seem downbeat about the outcome.

“It (the discussions) went well … in the wrong direction,” he said, adding that his party would make a detailed statement Saturday.

There was no immediate comment from Mbeki and no indication of when further mediation might take place.

Under the deal signed, Mugabe’s party was to have 15 Cabinet posts, Tsvangirai’s 13 and the minor opposition faction led by Arthur Mutumbara three.

Last weekend Mugabe unilaterally claimed the most powerful posts for his own party in a move widely condemned as power-grabbing.

Key-sticking points in talks this were believed to have been the allocation of the finance and police ministries.

Tsvangirai said Friday that the parties needed to embrace the “principle of equitable power-sharing” if a new government was to work.

He said proposals presented by Mugabe’s ZANU-PF party were not “equitable” and therefore not acceptable to his Movement for Democratic Change.

“We are concerned there is an attempt to reduce the MDC to a meaningless position in the coalition government,” he said.

He called on SADC and the AU to help in “crafting a sustainable way forward” and said he hoped a meeting of the regional security organ on Monday would address the crisis.

“We remain committed to the political agreement and now call on the guarantors and underwriters to assist in the establishment of an equitable and acceptable government which reflects the will of the people of Zimbabwe,” he said.

Without a political agreement, the economic and humanitarian crisis in Zimbabwe has deepened. Inflation is at 231 million percent and the U.N. estimates that 45 percent of Zimbabwe’s population, or 5.1 million people, will need food help by early 2009.

Politicians and generals who have long depended on Mugabe’s patronage are believed to be balking at losing their jobs. Tsvangirai, too, is under pressure. The international community is unlikely to unlock much-needed aid and investment if Tsvangirai is seen as giving up too much, and his supporters at home already are worried he erred fatally by allowing Mugabe to retain any power.

President Robert Mugabe, prime minister Morgan Tsvangirai and opposition faction leader Arthur Mutambara were to decide on Tuesday how the new government’s 31 ministries were to be divided, but the meeting was put off until yesterday while behind- the-scenes negotiations took place.

However, despite the extra time the three men have been unable to agree on who will control key ministries such as home affairs, which controls the police force and secret service.

“The meeting did not produce an agreement and the matter has been referred to the negotiators because of contestations over key ministries,” Mr Chamisa told local reporters. “The negotiators will convene urgently to try to resolve the deadlock.”

An opposition source close to the negotiations said on condition of anonymity: “Zanu-PF wants all the powerful ministries, like finance, defence, local government and information and [to] leave us less important ministries. We are saying: ‘Let’s have an equal share.’”

Last Monday’s historic powersharing deal meant the new government’s ministries would be divided between the three parties, with Zanu-PF allotted 15 portfolios, Mr Tsvangirai’s MDC 13 and Mr Mutambara’s faction three.

However, the latest development is an early indication of how difficult it will be for a multiparty cabinet to operate effectively given the wide divisions that exist between the former ruling regime and both opposition groups.

Nevertheless, Mr Tsvangirai has reiterated his belief that his long-time adversary is committed to making the new regime work. Speaking on South African radio on Wednesday he said he was certain Mr Mugabe’s commitment to the deal was “unquestionable”.

“At a personal level, we don’t have a strained relationship . . . there has been some positive interaction. So I’m quite confident that we can work together for the good of the people. I mean that’s the whole intention,” he said.

Mr Mugabe told his party’s central committee live on state television on the same day that while sharing power with their rival was a “humiliation” it was one they had to accept because they had lost their parliamentary majority in March’s general election.

Mr Tsvangirai also won a presidential majority but did not secure the 50 per cent plus one votes needed to avoid a run-off. He subsequently withdrew from the run-off after widespread violence that caused the death of more than 200 of his supporters.

“One keeps asking if only we had not blundered in the harmonised election we would not be facing this humiliation,” Mr Mugabe said. “This is what we have to deal with.”

Despite the hope that surrounds the deal, the country’s central bank issued a new 1,000 dollar note on Wednesday in a bid to ease widespread cash shortages and spiralling inflation. A series of new notes has been introduced since August, after the central bank struck 10 zeros off the local currency. – Irish Times

The octogenarian President will now have to contend with a cabinet dominated by the combined factions of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). Authoritative sources say the deal to be announced on Monday creates 31 cabinet posts, of which Mr Mugabe will pick up 15, Morgan Tsvangirai 13, and the remaining three will go to a smaller breakaway faction of the MDC led by Arthur Mutambara.

However, contrary to suggestions that Mr Mugabe’s role will be reduced to a ceremonial one, he will very much remain in the driving seat as President and head of cabinet.

“If the two MDC factions work together, which they must in the national interest, they will enjoy a majority in cabinet,” said David Coltart , the legal affairs secretary of Mr Mutambara’s smaller splinter faction. This means the MDC should be able to drive the policy agenda and seek to abolish the apparatus of repression that Mr Mugabe has nurtured over the years. But there is also the real possibility that the MDC factions might remain at loggerheads, which will effectively benefit Mr Mugabe.

Some analysts see a major bottleneck emerging from the complex institutional arrangements created to mollify both the Mugabe and Tsvangirai sides during months of negotiations.

The dialogue had remained stalled over Mr Tsvangirai’s refusal to deputise Mr Mugabe as chair of cabinet. The MDC leader had contended that as Prime Minister, the prerogative of chairing and overseeing the work of cabinet should be his. The 84- year-old President argued that stripping him of the chairmanship of cabinet would reduce him to a “ceremonial drama queen”.

The stalemate was broken by Mr Mbeki, who proposed two centres of power, instituting a new “council of ministers” while keeping the normal cabinet. Mr Mugabe and his two deputies will have no seats in the council of ministers chaired by Mr Tsvangirai. Mr Mugabe would remain chair of the cabinet and the “council of ministers” would be accountable to cabinet. The council will be charged with recommending policy to cabinet and overseeing its implementation.

Potential for conflict thus remains high, notes an analyst, Noah Chifamba. “What happens if Mugabe rejects policy proposals from the council and vice-versa? It is not clear whose decisions take precedence,” he said. Eldred Masunungure, a political scientist at the University of Zimbabwe, said: “It’s a potential minefield and some very treacherous terrain will have to be navigated.” Mr Coltart echoed that fear, noting that most opposition cabinet members would at one stage have been “brutalised on the instructions of those they will now have to work with”.

The power-sharing deal calls for a new “people-driven” constitution to be enacted within 18 months and for the way to be prepared for future elections under a new democratic dispensation. If the latter is achieved, that will perhaps be the most significant outcome of the deal as it will enable the opposition to fight and win future elections with ease.

More important is the share- out of powerful security cabinet portfolios. It is understood that the MDC has been allocated the Ministry of Home Affairs in charge of the police. If the MDC can overhaul the force into a credible professional body, then it would have achieved a milestone in the re-democratisation process of Zimbabwe. The problem for Mr Tsvangirai is that he won’t have power to hire and fire the police commissioner. Such key appointments will still be made by Mr Mugabe on the advice of the Prime Minister. Mr Mugabe would also retain the Ministry of Defence with all its power to annihilate his enemies still intact.

“I would agree that this [deal] is a fragile initial step and it won’t work unless the political foes involved bury the hatchet and decide to just work for the good of the country,” said Mr Chifamba, warning that any “minor irritation” from either of the parties could break it. “Let’s give it a few months and see. I think if it survives the first three to six months, when important policy decisions will have to be taken, it will probably survive the duration of its envisaged existence.”

Western donors, whose money will be required for reconstruction, are likely to adopt a wait-and-see attitude. Many, like the US and Britain, will be disappointed that Mr Mugabe still wields so much power.

The first task of the new government will be to come up with a viable economic reconstruction programme. Mr Tsvangirai will then have to embark on a resource mobilisation exercise to fund it. But getting agreement for such a programme, which would in some instances entail reversing many of Mr Mugabe’s nationalisation laws, will be a mammoth task. Mr Mugabe has already declared there will be no going back on his land reforms despite the fact that once productive farms dished out to incompetent cronies are lying fallow.

At a glance, the national unity pact

*Positions

President: Robert Mugabe
Two Vice-Presidents: Both from Zanu-PF
Prime Minister: Morgan Tsvangirai
Two Deputy Prime Ministers from MDC

*Division of powers

Head of state and chairman of cabinet: Robert Mugabe
Chairman of council of ministers: Morgan Tsvangirai

*Responsibilities

Council of ministers debates and recommends policy to cabinet. It also oversees implementation of policy. Cabinet oversees the council and approves recommendations from council of ministers

*Control of ministries

31 ministries in total : 15 allocated to Mugabe, 13 to Tsvangirai, three to Arthur Mutambara (splinter MDC faction)

15 deputy ministers (eight to Mugabe, six for Tsvangirai and one for Mutambara)

Mugabe retains Ministry of Defence

Tsvangirai gets Ministry of Home Affairs

*Constitution

A new democratic constitution envisaged within 18 months of the start of the unity government

The Nkomo precedent

*The fate of Joshua Nkomo is a worrying precedent for Morgan Tsvangirai. In December 1987, Nkomo, leader of Zimbabwe’s main opposition party, Zapu, signed an agreement with President Robert Mugabe for a national unity government.

Mr Nkomo, whose supporters in southern and western Zimbabwe had suffered years of political violence after independence, served as a figurehead vice-president.

The cabinet also included three Zapu leaders. The two parties were officially merged to become Zanu-PF, but in reality the deal led to the absorption of Mr Nkomo’s party and enabled Mr Mugabe to rule unchallenged for a further decade. Mr Nkomo remained as vice-president until his death in 1999. – By Basildon Peta – The Independent

Mugabe said on Sept. 3 he would name a Cabinet should MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai fail to sign the agreement the following day. Such a move would threaten talks aimed at ending the southern African nation’s political crisis, MDC spokesman Nelson Chamisa said by phone today from Harare, the capital.

Zimbabwe has been in political deadlock since Mugabe extended his 28-year rule in a June runoff presidential election in which he was the sole candidate. Tsvangirai boycotted the poll to protest violence against his supporters that he said was sanctioned by the state. The two leaders began talks on July 21 aimed at forming a unity government.

“By threatening to form a cabinet, Mugabe is effectively issuing a death certificate to the talks,” Chamisa said.

The negotiations between Mugabe and Tsvangirai were suspended on Aug. 12 because they disagree on how executive power will be divided between them in any future coalition government. Tsvangirai wants control of the Cabinet.

“If Mugabe goes ahead and forms a Cabinet, it won’t work because it won’t reflect the will of the people,” Chamisa said. “It’ll be like a car without an engine.”

Mbeki Visit

South African President Thabo Mbeki, who has been mandated by the 15-nation Southern African Development Community to try to help mediate an end to the crisis, may travel to Zimbabwe next week, the Herald reported. The Harare-based newspaper cited Patrick Chinamasa, the chief negotiator for Zimbabwe’s ruling party. Mbeki’s spokesman, Mukoni Ratshitanga, said he wasn’t aware of the visit.

“As far as I know, there are no such travel plans,” Ratshitanga said in a phone interview. “We would issue a statement if there were such plans.”

Meanwhile, Voice of the People, a Zimbabwean-registered broadcaster, reported that Lieutenant General Phillip Velario Sibanda, the commander of the Zimbabwe National Army, was heckled by junior officers and soldiers over pay.

Sibanda tried to calm the troops, who said their pay couldn’t support a family for a day or pay fees for children returning to school this week, it said. Soldiers earn as little as 1,000 Zimbabwe dollars a month, VoP said. That amounts to about $2 on the black market, where most Zimbabweans buy their foreign exchange.

Story by : Brian Latham. Published in the Bloomberg.com