SRI LANKA: IDPs Divided over Election Outcome

IRIN – As the results of Sri Lanka’s first post-war presidential election poured in, the mood at Menik Farm, in the main government-run camp for the ethnic Tamil internally displaced (IDPs), in the northern town of Vavuniya, was sober.

Only 6,000 residents of the camp, home to some 118,000 IDPs, sought to register for the 27 January polls.

“We want an opportunity to rebuild our shattered lives,” said a resident, Sellamma Vallimuttu. She recalled a time when the north was flourishing, with lush paddy fields, hectares of onion fields and unrestricted fishing.

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Poor start to Southern voter registration

Photo: Peter Martell/IRIN

Sudanese march through the streets of the southern capital Juba urging people to register for elections due in April 2010

Sudan has started registering voters for presidential, legislative and regional elections, but officials in the south and international observers say the process has begun on a flawed note.

“This process could easily be referred to as ‘dead on arrival’,” Anne Itto, secretary-general for the south of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM), said on 3 November.

The National Election Commission (NEC) deputy head Abdalla Ahmed, however, told the Sudan Tribune on 2 November that the NEC had mobilized concerned authorities to ensure the success of the exercise.

The month-long process began on 1 November. It is a key step towards the April 2010 polls that are seen as a landmark of the 2005 peace agreement that ended two decades of civil war between north and south.

An estimated two million people died in that war, which ended with the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA).

“In the context of Southern Sudan, where you don’t have [telephone] networks, where you don’t have roads, where you don’t have public transport, it is very unrealistic to expect registration to be completed by 30 November,” Itto told reporters in the Southern capital, Juba.

Should the NEC fail to take immediate and drastic action, warned the SPLM, fewer than 10 percent of eligible voters in the south would be able to register and vote.

“If things go the way they are going now, I believe less than 10 percent of the total population will be registered,” Itto said.

The NEC has set up some 15,000 registration centres to cater for an estimated 20 million Sudanese voters.

Concerns

Observers, however, said the centres had been slow to open even in state capitals, and reports indicated that access for rural populations was poor.

Awareness that registration had begun or even knowledge of the need to register was low, while state election committees had complained of delays in operational funding.

Those concerns were echoed by the US-based Carter Center, whose international observers are monitoring the electoral process, which said more must be done countrywide to ensure registration.

On 2 November, the centre “expressed concerns about the obstacles facing election observers, including delays in finalizing their accreditation procedures and delays in election preparations, as well as continued reports of harassment of political party and civil society activity”.

Citing Darfur, it warned of the difficulty of running election activities in the troubled region: “The continuing state of emergency means that a free and open electoral process remains difficult to contemplate.”

Insecurity worries

Separately, the Washington-based Enough Project warned that poor preparations would impact on future key events, including the referendum on the south’s potential full independence slated for January 2011.

“The deck is stacked against a free and fair election in five months,” wrote Sudan-based researcher Maggie Fick in a 5 November report. “There are worrying signs that it could be a trigger for further insecurity.”

The process, she added, could, however, provide key lessons for the actual elections. The voter registration process “could also serve as a trial run in which some of the issues that could negatively impact [on] the polling period could be resolved”, she added. “Alternately, the registration process could expose a reality that… has been felt on the ground for some time: these elections could destabilize already insecure areas as the all-important 2011 referendum draws nearer.”

Photo: Peter Martell/IRIN

Sudanese children in the southern capital Juba take part in efforts to promote ongoing voter registration for April 2010 elections

Awareness problems

In capitals like Juba, awareness is poor, despite efforts by the authorities to advertise the process through street marches, poster campaigns and radio broadcasts.

“I registered on the first day, but I know many people who are not aware,” Opio Moses Korduk, a local resident, told IRIN.

Others however, said that as southerners, their concern was the 2011 referendum and not the election.

“The north cheated us when they ran the census results,” said James Deng, a student at Juba University, referring to the contested national census results released earlier this year.

“So why should we think the election will be any different? I am waiting for the referendum because independence is the only future for the south,” he added.

Rising tensions

Meanwhile, talks continued between north and south following meetings with the US Special Envoy Scott Gration to tackle sticking points of the CPA.

“It is a difficult and lengthy process, but failure is not an option,” Gration warned in Khartoum on 2 November.

Tensions have risen between north and south, especially following comments by Southern President Salva Kiir that voting for unity in 2011 would make southerners “second-class” citizens in Sudan.

The two sides are still divided by ideological, religious and ethnic differences over which the civil war was fought.

“It is why it is critical that we ensure that the process is fair and credible and that the will of the people, as expressed through the national elections and the referendum, is respected peacefully,” added Gration.

Analysis: The dangers of Sudan’s elections

A new boycott threat by several political parties in Sudan illustrates how next year’s elections, billed as a milestone in democratic transformation, in fact present considerable challenges and could destabilize the country and further undermine an already shaky peace deal between north and south.

The threat to boycott Sudan’s first elections in two decades was issued in Juba, capital of Southern Sudan, by some 20 political parties, which demanded changes to laws relating to civil liberties, such as press freedom, and democracy.

A few days earlier, the London-based African Centre for Justice and Peace Studies said there had been an “increasing crackdown on freedom of expression in Sudan, targeting public discussion of, and preparation for, the elections. Since the beginning of August, Sudanese authorities have systematically targeted any activities, symposia, public rallies or lectures related to the elections.”

Signatories to the Juba Declaration include the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM), which governs the semi-autonomous Southern Sudan and has been a partner in a fragile national government since a 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) put an end to 20 years of north-south war.

In the Juba Declaration, the parties also said they would stay away from the presidential, parliamentary and local polls unless a row over the results of a census – which affects electoral constituencies – was resolved.

The National Congress Party (NCP), led by President Omar el-Bashir, did not take up an invitation to participate in the talks.

The argument in favour

Although neither the SPLM nor the NCP was keen to include elections in the CPA negotiations, foreign sponsors of the peace process were convinced polls would help reverse the extreme centralization of power that has long been a major driver of conflict in Sudan.

The CPA originally scheduled elections for 2009, halfway though an interim period that culminates in an independence referendum in Southern Sudan in 2012. It was foreseen that the elections would also serve as “plebiscite on the CPA, engage political forces that were not included in the agreement and instil among the Sudanese population a sense of ownership of the peace process”, states Ticking the box – Elections in Sudan, a report by Jort Hemmer of the Netherlands Institute for International Relations’ Conflict Research Unit.

Photo: Derk Segaar/IRIN

Southern Sudan’s President, Salva Kiir Mayardit

Opening the Juba conference, Southern Sudan’s president, Salva Kiir Mayardit, said: “I believe that the general elections, if properly conducted, shall be a critical impetus for change and empowerment of our people to choose their political leaders and elect their democratic institutions.

“If properly conducted… elections shall be a good opportunity for the Sudanese people to bring a real change through their free will as one major impetus to the process of democratic transformation,” he said, adding pointedly: “But those are two big ‘ifs’.”

Caveats

Kiir’s principal caveat concerns this year’s population census, whose results he described as “too flawed and lack[ing] the minimum acceptable level of credibility.

“Without the resolution of this issue… the election process, despite our preparedness for it, may be put in jeopardy.”

There are also concerns about the level of this “preparedness”. In late August, the Carter Center warned in a report of “serious concerns about slippage in the overall electoral calendar” as well as “delays in key operational, policy, and budgetary decisions; continued restrictions on civil liberties; and the lack of adequate reform legislation needed to fully protect the fundamental freedoms of Sudanese citizens”.

It said the “ambitious” election schedule would “only be viable” if swift steps were taken to ensure further delays are avoided.

US Special Envoy to Sudan, Scott Gration, has spoken of the many challenges for the electoral process. “Not only do all the legislative laws need to be passed, but there is also election training, voter education, the security that is involved in it, the ballot boxes, the monitoring – all those kind of issues are very, very difficult.”

In a country where many citizens have never voted in their lives, the complexity of the poll is likely to be bewildering. The election will determine the presidencies and legislatures of both the Government of National Unity and Southern Sudan, state governorships and state assemblies. Some victors will be chosen under a first-past-the-post system, others by proportional representation.

Photo: IRIN

Elections were included in a 2005 peace deal.

In a recent report, the Rift Valley Institute noted that the numerous elections and referendums held in Sudan since 1953 “have not so far produced the kind of stable yet dynamic government that the secret ballot is intended to encourage” largely because of “widespread and massive” fraud under authoritarian regimes and lack of necessary resources.

While the report argued that elections should take place in Sudan, it warned of a “strong possibility that the forthcoming election will suffer from a combination of all the weaknesses that have undermined previous elections. There is widespread public scepticism and suspicion of possible malpractice, based on people’s experience in previous authoritarian elections; and there are immense logistical challenges.

“The stakes are very high. If the election should lack credibility, it is hard to see how the Comprehensive Peace Agreement can survive,” it said.

In Ticking the Box, Hemmer wrote that “Sudan’s political context presents an extremely unfavourable environment for an open and honest competition for power.

“Contested elections that spark large-scale political violence and, in the worse case, constitute a prelude to a new war is a realistic scenario,” he added, concluding that Sudan “had much to lose and little to gain” from holding elections in 2010.

This sentiment is shared by Sudan analyst John Ashworth. “By having elections you could actually derail democracy because of the context – a ceasefire between two warring parties. It doesn’t make sense to disrupt that before the end of the interim period.”

In Brief: New report on future scenarios in Sudan

Sudan is planning to hold elections in April 2010 and a referendum on southern autonomy the following year, but beyond this the future is uncertain, says a report entitled “Sudan 2012 – Scenarios for the Future”.

The report is based on a study by Jaïr van der Lijn of the Netherland Institute of International Relations and commissioned by IKV Pax Christi and Cordaid.

Two key uncertainties will define possible scenarios in 2012 – will Sudan be united or will the North and South have gone separate ways? Or will there be a new war between the North and the South, or will there be no war?

“At present, the international community, governments, international organizations and civil society groups are primarily focused on stimulating implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement and making sure an election and referendum take place…little time is given to thinking strategically about the period after 2011. What will happen in 2012 is barely touched on,” the report says.

St.Peters Community Centre MDC election results

For immediate release

The MDC held its last meeting on the 11 of July 2009 at St. Peters Community Centre in Highfields.

The meeting discussed among other things events back home. There was a feeling from the members that progress back home is still frustratingly slow. Despite the PM painting a rosy picture of the situation back home on his recent overseas trip it is apparent that the party back home does not share the same view. This was best illustrated in the latest incident in which the MDC boycotted the cabinet meeting and the subsequent statement issued by the acting PM Mrs. T. Khupe.

Elections

However the important business of the day was the conducting of the much awaited gap feeling elections. Two officials from the District were in attendance to supervise the elections. These were Mr.Hombiro the District vice Organising Secretary and Mr.Shiri the District Youth Chairperson.

The Leicester Executive Committee now stands as follows:

1    Chairman    – Tawanda Machakayire
2    Vice Chairman –   Dominic Mugumbate
3    Secretary   -  Richard Jaramba
4    Treasurer   -  Ashton Zaranyika
5    Organising Secretary   -  Pelani Ziba
6    Women’s Chairperson   -  Juliet Makande
7    Youth Chairperson   –   Ottillia Matanhire
8    Information and Publicity   -  Nkululeko. Y. Ndlovu
9    Committee Member   -  Maxwell Mwenje
10    Committee Member    -  Mellissa Murove

The Chairman said he hoped that the branch would be able to serve its members more effectively given that it now had a full executive. Mr Hombiro said he had been asked to convey a special thanks to Leicester branch from the MDC Midlands North district for their consistent high contributions to the party coffers as this was an outcome of well organised fundraising events.

A report for the July 25, 2009 meeting will be published shortly.

For more information please contact either the Chairman Tawanda Machakayire on 07919678788 or Dominic Mugumbate the Vice Chairman on 07828683788.

“Simmering discontent” ahead of elections

Photo: Laudes Martial Mbon/IRIN

President Denis Sassou Nguesso is among the candidates running for election on 12 July

(IRIN) – Barely two weeks before presidential elections in the Republic of Congo, Marcel Kombo decided to send his wife and children away from Brazzaville.

“When you listen to the politicians talking, you’ve got to be prudent,” said Kombo, a secondary school teacher in the capital. The poll is due on 12 July.

“Their language is a bit violent and they don’t give one confidence. I have decided to send my family – my wife, three children and a nephew – to the village so they are safe if fighting breaks out,” he added.

With a past marred by army mutinies, rebellions, coups and attempted coups, Congo has been in the throes of a humanitarian crisis for more than a decade. Hundreds of thousands of people remain displaced, especially in the north of the country, where rebel activity is ongoing.

In the Pool region, for example, where government forces fought militias for years until 2003, the conflict destroyed livelihoods and set back years of progress, according to aid agencies.

Primary school enrolment, which used to be almost 100 percent, had by the end of the war dropped to less than 60 percent, according to the UN World Food Programme, which in May expanded its school-feeding programme in the Pool.

“People have not forgotten that elections have led to certain conflicts in the past,” Henri Okemba, a former minister, explained. However, he thought the political class had sufficiently matured to avoid a civil war.

Marguerite Kongo, a vendor at Bouemba market, said she had put some cash aside in case the situation deteriorated. “With our politicians anything can happen; they want power so much that they could unleash war on the country again,” she said. “When you hear people saying in the media that no one has a monopoly on violence, you get worried and take action.”

Service breakdowns

Maixent Hanimbat, chairman of the Forum for Governance and Human Rights (FGDH), said Congo’s socio-economic context was an important factor.

“Simmering discontent” was noticeable in the city, with frequent breakdowns in essential services such as water, healthcare and electricity, and discontent could lead to civil war when the election results are announced, he warned.

The socio-economic situation is precarious, with salaries unable to cover basic costs, he added. Education and health facilities are inadequate and unemployment is high – despite significant revenue from oil and timber.

Two supposedly “moderate” opposition candidates on 22 June threatened to withdraw from the elections in protest at the late publication of electoral lists.

They also claimed that the composition of the electorate and the number of polling stations was still not known by 26 June, and disputed the impartiality of the electoral commission.

Parliamentary elections in 2007 and local elections in 2008, organized by the same electoral commission, were marred by fraud, according to observers from the African Union observers and the Coordination d’appui au processus électoral, a Congolese civil society body comprising more than 20 NGOs.

On 22 June, Prime Minister Isidore Mvouba, who is also vice-president of the National Security Council (CNS), sought to reassure people that adequate security measures were in place.

The CNS was deploying 17,000 security staff to protect polling stations and election rallies, as well as the candidates, including incumbent President Dennis Sassou Nguesso, who has ruled twice, from 1979 to 1992 and from 1997 to date. In March 2002, he won elections with 89.41 percent of votes cast.

From the street to the screen

By Matthew Goodwin

Whether or not the European elections in June will produce Britain’s first ever far-right MEP, the British National Party (BNP) poses a real threat.

Although the far right is often viewed as an ephemeral phenomenon, the factors underpinning its support are not. Working-class anxieties over immigration and multiculturalism are often dismissed as bigotry, but concerns run deep.

According to one poll, 60 per cent of Britons feel that there are too many immigrants in Britain, and 80 per cent feel that the government has lied to them about the scale of migration. In another poll conducted on the 40th anniversary of Enoch Powell’s “rivers of blood” speech, nearly half of voters said they would support policies encouraging migrants to return to their country of origin.

And immigration is brought up by between three and four in every ten respondents in regular MORI polls asking about the most important problems facing the country. Put simply, these concerns need to be addressed.

Another reason the BNP needs to be taken seriously is its changing strategy. It is often pointed out that the party has replaced boots with suits and ditched street fighting for community politics. Yet arguably the most significant change has taken place in cyberspace.

According to the Alexa rank, which measures the level of traffic to an internet site over the past three months, the BNP, in 45,000th place, easily outperforms all the major parties (as well as other popular political sites such as the Guido Fawkes blog, which is at 57,000th).

The BNP also finishes first when the average number of minutes that users spend on a site is taken into account: over the past three months visitors to its site spent longer there than users on the website of any other political party. Surfers on the BNP site spent on average 6.3 minutes a day checking out the party and its ideas, compared to 2.6 minutes for the Conservatives.

For the European elections, the BNP is launching an unprecedented online campaign. While retaining its emphasis on door-to-door canvassing, the party will also use online advertisements and send text messages to random numbers, asking voters to donate small sums and spread the word to friends and family. Voters who decide to make an inquiry will find themselves directed to one of several call centres that the BNP has set up in the hope that, whether or not it wins a seat at Strasbourg, it will finish the campaign with a much-enlarged membership base.

The BNP’s shift towards an Obama-style online strategy enables it to circumvent the tactics used by other parties to starve it of publicity, and also shows up the dangers of that approach.

Previously, mainstream politicians have refused to co-operate with democratically elected BNP councillors, and newspapers have ignored or condemned the far right. But this risks fuelling a sense among voters that the Establishment is out of touch and does not take their concerns seriously.

Meanwhile, the durability of BNP support in areas such as Barking, Dagenham and Stoke shows that just simply bashing the party as “Nazi” no longer works. Voters in some areas are so exasperated with the political Establishment, and so desperate for an alternative, that they don’t care about the party’s extremist credentials.

The BNP is sidestepping a hostile press and an indifferent political elite by delivering its message direct to the desktop. Regardless of what happens in June, the challenge it poses is now more complex and multifaceted in nature, and calls for a more innovative response than that which is currently on offer.

This article was first published in the New Statesman on 21 May 2009.

Matthew Goodwin is a fellow of the Institute for Political and Economic Governance at the University of Manchester

*Hatnews is not responsible for the content of this article or for any external internet sites. The views expressed are the author’s alone.

McGee calls for fresh elections and brands unity govt imperfect

By Cuthberh Nzou|ZimOnline

The United States (US) has called for fresh elections in Zimbabwe in 24 months, labelling a unity government between President Robert Mugabe and Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai an “imperfect union” hampered by a power struggle between the erstwhile enemies.

US ambassador to Zimbabwe James McGee said little had changed politically in Zimbabwe despite formation of the unity government last month and said Washington would not yet lift targeted sanctions imposed on Mugabe and top officials of his old government and ZANU PF party.

The US and its Western allies – the source of the bulk of aid to Zimbabwe – have said they want Harare to submit a credible economic recovery programme, implement genuine and comprehensive political and economic reforms before they can lift sanctions and provide substantial financial support to the new government.

McGee, who described the political mood in Zimbabwe as “business as usual” – said the US wanted to see a new and democratic constitution in place in Zimbabwe in 18 months followed by free and fair vote to choose a new government.

“That is key – free and fair elections in Zimbabwe within 24 months would be an absolute key to anything that does happen positively in this country,” McGee said on Monday.

The US diplomat said the unity government had not made much headway since its formation on February 13 after months of power sharing negotiations facilitated by former South African President Thabo Mbeki on behalf of the Southern African Development Community (SADC).

Under pressure from SADC, Tsvangirai agreed to end his decade-long struggle to unseat Mugabe to take up the post of Prime Minister while his MDC party was allocated several ministerial posts including finance.

Arthur Mutambara, who heads a smaller formation of the MDC, was appointed Deputy Prime Minister with his faction also given some ministerial posts in an all inclusive government that immediately ignited hopes Zimbabwe could finally emerge from its crisis.

But McGee said a struggle for influence between Mugabe’s ZANU PF and Tsvangirai’s MDC parties was hindering progress and had left the unity government operating in “fits and starts”.

“We have two political parties occupying or attempting to occupy one government,” said McGee, in the most frank assessment of Zimbabwe’s unity government by a foreign diplomat to date.

“Each political party has a number of ministries that they control, a Prime Minister who is trying to exert his power, and then you have the President, Robert Mugabe, still trying to exert all of his power. So it is a very imperfect union right now,” McGee said.

The US envoy said farm invasions, blamed for destabilising Zimbabwe’s mainstay agricultural sector to plunge the country into endless food shortages, were still taking place, while at least 13 MDC activists continued to languish in prison.

“It is still business as usual, that is exactly what is happening, and we need to see some change,” said McGee. The US was “just not going to lift these sanctions” until Zimbabwe’s government showed it was committed to upholding human rights, he sad.

McGee, whose government has given Zimbabwe more than US$264 million in food and other humanitarian assistance since October 2007 and in recent months has provided more than US$6,8 million to fight cholera, said there had been some progress on health with the epidemic “somewhat under control”.

A cholera epidemic that began last August has infected more than 90 000 Zimbabweans and killed more than 4 000 others but the World Health Organisation that has led efforts to curb the disease said on Monday that there were signs the outbreak was coming under control with a drop in new infections and the death rate.

Why MDC may end up covered in slime

Iraqi refugees follow provincial elections back home

(UNHCR) – Iraqi refugees in nearby countries such as Egypt, Jordan and Syria were on Monday awaiting the outcome of provincial elections in their homeland over the weekend with mixed feelings.

About 50 percent of the electorate turned out in 14 of the country’s 18 provinces for Saturday’s largely peaceful vote, the first since 2005. More than 14,000 candidates were competing for 440 seats – the official results are expected in a few days’ time. There was no voting in three provinces of the semi-autonomous Kurdish region, and in Kirkuk the ballot was postponed.

A typical street scene in a busy district of Damascus that is popular with Iraqi refugees, many of whom have been closely following provincial elections in their home country. © UNHCR/J.Wreford

Some refugees said they believed that these elections, which come ahead of a general election later this year, were important for the future. Others were less sanguine, saying they thought the provincial polls would make no difference.

“This is a good election and transparent for the most part,” refugee Mohamed* told UNHCR staff at the agency’s office in the Jordanian capital of Amman. Aisha,* an Iraqi photographer living in Cairo, agreed that elections offered an opportunity for reconciliation. “I am ready to move beyond ethnic lines and vote for whoever is ready to take this responsibility [for reconciliation],” said Aisha.

“I do not care who will control the majority of seats or who will be in power, but what I truly hope for is a peaceful Iraq that can accommodate all Iraqis irrespective of their ethnic or religious affiliation,” said Abou,* who has been living in Cairo since 2006.

While many Iraqi refuges have been following the provincial elections closely, some people are either not interested or pessimistic, seeing no real benefit in the exercise. “The elections carry no significance,” Omar, an Iraqi refugee living in Damascus, said bitterly. “The country is destroyed and people care only for their personal gains, positions.”

And some have had such a traumatic time that they do not want to ever return to Iraq. “Most of my family members have either been killed, kidnapped or are now refugees scattered across the globe. I am not going to return to Iraq,” said Rose* in Cairo. Her family was targeted in sectarian violence.

“Do you think it matters to me who will win the provincial elections? It does not matter, at least to me,” she added.

Many Iraqis still live overseas. UNHCR has registered more than 300,000 Iraqis in neighbouring and nearby countries, including Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt and Turkey. Last year, some 195,000 internally displaced Iraqis and 25,000 refugees were able to return to their homes.

Inside Iraq, UNHCR is increasing its presence and operations amid an improvement in the security situation. The agency has doubled its budget to US$81 million in 2009 and is in the process of increasing the number of provincial offices from 10 to 16. Continued donor support will be vital.

* Names changed for protection reasons

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