Proposed New General Elections: Any Hope for the Future?

By Mbiriyashe Chiratidzo Mungaraza

The post 2008 general election trauma is still haunting the entire majority of Zimbabweans. It was an election marred and characterised by unforeseen violence caused by Zanu PF with their intention to cling on to power until Kingdom come. Many people were beaten, tortured, maimed, and killed while others were left homeless with no hope for the future.

What is particularly worrying is Zanu PF’s belief that they can still win the forthcoming elections. It is still not clear whether these elections will be held any time soon. The truth is that Zanu PF will never relinquish power even if they are defeated. Their (Zanu PF) cronies who have ravaged the country’s economy and massacred innocent civilians will never allow a free and fair election. The truth is that Mugabe’s pensioners are aware that people are fed up with their tactics.

Vote rigging

The entire world is now aware that Zanu PF has been winning elections through rigging and violence. Mugabe and his allies would rather cling on the dysfunctional unity government rather than face humiliation. Despite the malfunctioning of the unity government, Mugabe is still adamant that he can still win back the hearts of electorate although he is reluctant to share power accordingly. He is still dictating the the pace and worse through the indiscriminate persecuting of his opponents.

If MDC really joined this Unity Government to save the country and its suffering people, then now is the right time to press hard for fresh, free and fair internationally supervised elections. People are geared up to defeat Zanu PF. There is no doubt Zanu PF is now very unpopular.

Ideally, MDC should be in the driving seat since they have the majority of seats in parliament but Mugabe and his thugs are still using their unscrupulous dictatorial tactics to maintain a stranglehold on the reigns of power. The way Mugabe is handling this unity government leaves a lot to be desired. There is no need for Tsvangirai to keep on compromising. It is now high time he should press for new elections. Zimbabweans have suffered enough and people’s rights continue to be abused with impunity, living in perpetual fear of their brutal leaders.

Economy

The economic recovery of the country is being jeopardised by the tensions within this so called unity government. The three parties involved are pulling in different directions threatening the already fragile coalition government with collapse. To worsen matters, Mugabe’s policy to grab 51 percent shareholding from any foreign investment makes Zimbabwe not only an unattractive destination for foreign investment, but also a no go area for those who respect the rule of law and property rights.

The longer Tsvangirai stays in this unity goverment, the harder it will be for him turn things around for the better. Notwithstanding the MDC’s involvement, Mugabe’s blood thirst rag tag army of party thugs and war veterans continue harass and brutalise defenceless civilians. It is high time that the MDC make a bold stand and force Mugabe to account by ensuring that a new constitution that guarantees free and fair elections is in place sooner rather than later.

International Observers

Previous elections have not been free and fair at all. They were mared by violence and the election observers were very incompetent. The Electoral Commision whose mandate is to supervise the conduct of the elections is largely pro-Zanu PF. So if ever a free and fair election is going to take place then, International monitors and observers are supposed to be involved at the earliest possible time. The current electoral system favours Zanu PF and it gives its supporters a free reign to cause mayhem with impunity.

As it stands, Mugabe will never support free and fair elections to take place because that will have disastrous consequences for his Party. He knows that once that is allowed to happen, this will mark the beginning of the end of his reign paving the way for a refreshingly better political
dispensation with safeguards for human rights and the much needed rule of law. The big question is; Can there be free and fair elections in Zimbabwe with the geriatric leader at the helm? Only time will tell.

Mbiriyashe Chiratidzo Mungaraza is a Zimbabwean based in Leicester

HAT News is precluded from expressing a corporate view: any opinions expressed are therefore those of the author.

Sudan’s Dangerous Trajectory

By Sean P.Brooks

A new military offensive in Darfur, the arrest of political leaders, and the shutting down of newspapers in Khartoum: election season must be over in Sudan. Emboldened by electoral “success,” Sudanese President Omar Al Bashir and his National Congress Party (NCP) are sending troubling signals about their philosophy that will guide post-election governance.

The push last Friday by the Sudanese Armed Forces to regain control over a stronghold of the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) in West Darfur kicked off seven days of violence and repression. The army reported that it killed 108 JEM fighters in the assault. Elsewhere in Darfur, JEM allegedly attacked a tanker truck killing 20 Sudanese police officers. Continued clashes between nomadic tribes and the kidnapping of humanitarian aid workers — including an American — have only heightened tensions throughout Darfur.

Commenting yesterday on these recent developments before the United Nations Security Council, the Joint Special Representative for the United Nations/African Union peacekeeping mission (UNAMID) stated that continued fighting in Darfur has “caused substantial civilian casualties, the displacement of communities, and hampered the delivery of humanitarian assistance.” The U.S. State Department earlier in the week also condemned the “recent offensive actions in Darfur” and “urged both the Government of Sudan and the Darfur rebel movements to refrain from any further actions that would undermine the Darfur peace process or endanger civilians.”

Yet, blithely ignoring the deteriorating conditions in Darfur, an NCP leader told Darfuri students this week that his party was seeking to deepen peace and foster a culture of national unity (article in Arabic). Most people in Darfur instead fear that the faltering peace process, government offensive, and continuing crisis in Jebel Marra proffer a new post-election reality.

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HRW Letter to EU Foreign Ministers on Sudan

To Foreign Ministers of EU Member States

Dear Minister:

We write with regard to the upcoming presidential inauguration of Omar al-Bashir, scheduled for May 27, 2010, to express deep concern over reports that diplomatic representatives of your government might attend the inauguration.

As you know, President al-Bashir is subject to an arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) in March 2009 on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity for atrocities committed in Darfur. States parties are obligated to cooperate with the ICC under the court’s Rome Statute, and states should demonstrate support for its work. Consistent with these objectives, ICC states parties should not attend meetings or events with al-Bashir unless absolutely essential.

An inauguration cannot in our view be justified as an essential meeting. Notably, United Nations (UN) guidelines that limit UN contact with indicted individuals state that “[t]he presence of UN representatives in any ceremonial or similar occasion with [persons indicted by international criminal courts] should be avoided.” ICC states parties should follow the same principles regarding their possible interactions with persons subject to ICC arrest warrants.

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Election reflections from a campaigner on migration and asylum

By John Grayson

As we start to analyse the results of the 2010 election we may be witnessing a reversal in the fortunes of the Far Right BNP in England. Their leader Nick Griffin actually polled nearly 2% less in Barking than the BNP did at the last General Election and the BNP did not win council seats in their key areas including Stoke. In South Yorkshire in Barnsley their main target they polled half the percentage share of the vote compared with last year’s Euro Elections.

Read full article here

Immigration and the general election: Did the dog bark, or didn’t it?

Source : Migrants’ Rights Network

By Don Flynn

Don Flynn argues that mainstream politicians went into this election with significant constraints on their scope to argue for restrictive immigration policies. As the general election results show, voters are prepared to punish politicians who ignore the dimension of social justice when it comes to this issue.

Read full story here

A NATION CRIPPLED BY TALKS

Leaders of Zimbabwe can not seem to reach decisions on issues crippling their country. On the contrary people of Zimbabwe are seemingly coming to one conscious agreement with no need of talks what have you. All agreeing that talks are leading the country nowhere. ,” Ncube is also reported as saying “Nothing is moving and it is useless for us to continue telling the nation that there is no progress while they are looking to us as Government to deliver” The MDC officials in Zimbabwe seem to notice that nothing is moving although they want to give the ZANU-PF the benefit of the doubt that they might change for the betterment of the nation, they are equally and slowly getting frustrated, as seen by the above quotation by Professor W. Ncube. 

 “Enough is enough” is a commonly used term by the Zimbabwean people, well who can blame them for saying so. These talks never seem to end. In my view there is only one thing that seems to be stopping the MDC for going the whole nine yards? calling for another fresh round of fair elections, its simply that they know that when dealing with Mugabe it can never be a free and fair elections. History is the only weapon the MDC can depend on and by now the Zimbabwean people and the international community should have learned that you can not share power with Mugabe. He has refused to Remove the now  Reserve bank of Zimbabwe governor G. Gono and has recently claimed that as long as he is alive Roy Benet will never became a Minister . Mugabe has managed to do this because he is hiding behind the on going talks.

 The Unity Accord of December 1987 between ZAPU and ZANU is another example whereby Zimbabweans used their collective efforts to solve their political challenge/divide. Almost two decades later Zimbabwe is under an Inclusive Government again ZANU-PF has tried to share power before with an opposition party only to consume and silence the opposition party; there are strong similarities in the GNU and the unity accord. Although this is evident  to the MDC they seem powerless to do anything against the calculative Mugabe and his party ZANU-PF. All Zimbabwe must hope for is that Mugabe is peacefully removed from power which he is holding on to. The MDC is trying to remove Mugabe peacefully with the help of SADC but removing Mugabe from power peaceful for the past 3 decades has proved to be difficult.  

By now Zimbabwe should be in a new dawn and should be moving on, the never ending talks have been the hurdle to the price, the price of true freedom to the people of Zimbabwe, true economic freedom. Mugabe seems to be clinging on to power and buying  time to yet again orchestrate another plan to oust The MDC, although the MDC have proven to be strong so far, they should never under estimate the mind of Mugabe who is seemingly driven onwards by a ghastly demonic impulse. Mugabe is holding the nation at Ransom for his benefit.

  The GNU has been praised for easing the Zimbabwean economy by the international communities but this can be a short lived solution if these talks go on. It is just a matter of time when the Zimbabwean people get tired of the talks and realize that if they go on it will once again cripple the country. It is time for Mugabe to realize that he needs to be a true patriot of Zimbabwe and give the power to the truly elected leader of Zimbabwe that is Prime Minister M. Tsvangirai for he can truly reform the economy of Zimbabwe and revive Zimbabwe to its former glory.

Zimbabwe is still on a halt only surviving on temporary solutions, by now these talks should have been over and the country should have been concentrating on the issues of relighting the already dead economy. Some might ague that what is happening now is going back the riches of the olden Zimbabwe, but for how long should Zimbabweans continue lying to themselves. Zimbabwe should learn from history?  ESAP an economic measure introduced by ZANU-PF was a short lived solution for the dying economy of Zimbabwe in the 90s and took the country to disastrous lows in terms of the economy. Now we have the dollarization in Zimbabwe this might ease the economy yes, but it will be short lived if the talks in Zimbabwe never end. Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai’s MDC formation has since challenged its coalition partners to concede that the dialogue has failed and begin preparations for general elections. Of course Mugabe does not agree to this because he knows the true outcome of the general elections if at all they will be fair. Mugabe has a history of not playing fair so that he can remain in power. So what then will change this time? In my view once a devil always a devil especially when referring to Mugabe who is hiding behind the fact that talks are going on, and not wanting to relinquish power.

In conclusion Mugabe must realize that he has failed and must give up. These talks in Zimbabwe have the country crippled. Whenever one thinks there is a break through in the talks there is always something holding them back and that is Mugabe. It is time for the nation of Zimbabwe to be truly set free and be restored to its former glory.

 

By Tichaona Manomano – volunteer community reporter with HAT News

SRI LANKA: IDPs Divided over Election Outcome

IRIN – As the results of Sri Lanka’s first post-war presidential election poured in, the mood at Menik Farm, in the main government-run camp for the ethnic Tamil internally displaced (IDPs), in the northern town of Vavuniya, was sober.

Only 6,000 residents of the camp, home to some 118,000 IDPs, sought to register for the 27 January polls.

“We want an opportunity to rebuild our shattered lives,” said a resident, Sellamma Vallimuttu. She recalled a time when the north was flourishing, with lush paddy fields, hectares of onion fields and unrestricted fishing.

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Poor start to Southern voter registration

Photo: Peter Martell/IRIN

Sudanese march through the streets of the southern capital Juba urging people to register for elections due in April 2010

Sudan has started registering voters for presidential, legislative and regional elections, but officials in the south and international observers say the process has begun on a flawed note.

“This process could easily be referred to as ‘dead on arrival’,” Anne Itto, secretary-general for the south of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM), said on 3 November.

The National Election Commission (NEC) deputy head Abdalla Ahmed, however, told the Sudan Tribune on 2 November that the NEC had mobilized concerned authorities to ensure the success of the exercise.

The month-long process began on 1 November. It is a key step towards the April 2010 polls that are seen as a landmark of the 2005 peace agreement that ended two decades of civil war between north and south.

An estimated two million people died in that war, which ended with the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA).

“In the context of Southern Sudan, where you don’t have [telephone] networks, where you don’t have roads, where you don’t have public transport, it is very unrealistic to expect registration to be completed by 30 November,” Itto told reporters in the Southern capital, Juba.

Should the NEC fail to take immediate and drastic action, warned the SPLM, fewer than 10 percent of eligible voters in the south would be able to register and vote.

“If things go the way they are going now, I believe less than 10 percent of the total population will be registered,” Itto said.

The NEC has set up some 15,000 registration centres to cater for an estimated 20 million Sudanese voters.

Concerns

Observers, however, said the centres had been slow to open even in state capitals, and reports indicated that access for rural populations was poor.

Awareness that registration had begun or even knowledge of the need to register was low, while state election committees had complained of delays in operational funding.

Those concerns were echoed by the US-based Carter Center, whose international observers are monitoring the electoral process, which said more must be done countrywide to ensure registration.

On 2 November, the centre “expressed concerns about the obstacles facing election observers, including delays in finalizing their accreditation procedures and delays in election preparations, as well as continued reports of harassment of political party and civil society activity”.

Citing Darfur, it warned of the difficulty of running election activities in the troubled region: “The continuing state of emergency means that a free and open electoral process remains difficult to contemplate.”

Insecurity worries

Separately, the Washington-based Enough Project warned that poor preparations would impact on future key events, including the referendum on the south’s potential full independence slated for January 2011.

“The deck is stacked against a free and fair election in five months,” wrote Sudan-based researcher Maggie Fick in a 5 November report. “There are worrying signs that it could be a trigger for further insecurity.”

The process, she added, could, however, provide key lessons for the actual elections. The voter registration process “could also serve as a trial run in which some of the issues that could negatively impact [on] the polling period could be resolved”, she added. “Alternately, the registration process could expose a reality that… has been felt on the ground for some time: these elections could destabilize already insecure areas as the all-important 2011 referendum draws nearer.”

Photo: Peter Martell/IRIN

Sudanese children in the southern capital Juba take part in efforts to promote ongoing voter registration for April 2010 elections

Awareness problems

In capitals like Juba, awareness is poor, despite efforts by the authorities to advertise the process through street marches, poster campaigns and radio broadcasts.

“I registered on the first day, but I know many people who are not aware,” Opio Moses Korduk, a local resident, told IRIN.

Others however, said that as southerners, their concern was the 2011 referendum and not the election.

“The north cheated us when they ran the census results,” said James Deng, a student at Juba University, referring to the contested national census results released earlier this year.

“So why should we think the election will be any different? I am waiting for the referendum because independence is the only future for the south,” he added.

Rising tensions

Meanwhile, talks continued between north and south following meetings with the US Special Envoy Scott Gration to tackle sticking points of the CPA.

“It is a difficult and lengthy process, but failure is not an option,” Gration warned in Khartoum on 2 November.

Tensions have risen between north and south, especially following comments by Southern President Salva Kiir that voting for unity in 2011 would make southerners “second-class” citizens in Sudan.

The two sides are still divided by ideological, religious and ethnic differences over which the civil war was fought.

“It is why it is critical that we ensure that the process is fair and credible and that the will of the people, as expressed through the national elections and the referendum, is respected peacefully,” added Gration.

Analysis: The dangers of Sudan’s elections

A new boycott threat by several political parties in Sudan illustrates how next year’s elections, billed as a milestone in democratic transformation, in fact present considerable challenges and could destabilize the country and further undermine an already shaky peace deal between north and south.

The threat to boycott Sudan’s first elections in two decades was issued in Juba, capital of Southern Sudan, by some 20 political parties, which demanded changes to laws relating to civil liberties, such as press freedom, and democracy.

A few days earlier, the London-based African Centre for Justice and Peace Studies said there had been an “increasing crackdown on freedom of expression in Sudan, targeting public discussion of, and preparation for, the elections. Since the beginning of August, Sudanese authorities have systematically targeted any activities, symposia, public rallies or lectures related to the elections.”

Signatories to the Juba Declaration include the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM), which governs the semi-autonomous Southern Sudan and has been a partner in a fragile national government since a 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) put an end to 20 years of north-south war.

In the Juba Declaration, the parties also said they would stay away from the presidential, parliamentary and local polls unless a row over the results of a census – which affects electoral constituencies – was resolved.

The National Congress Party (NCP), led by President Omar el-Bashir, did not take up an invitation to participate in the talks.

The argument in favour

Although neither the SPLM nor the NCP was keen to include elections in the CPA negotiations, foreign sponsors of the peace process were convinced polls would help reverse the extreme centralization of power that has long been a major driver of conflict in Sudan.

The CPA originally scheduled elections for 2009, halfway though an interim period that culminates in an independence referendum in Southern Sudan in 2012. It was foreseen that the elections would also serve as “plebiscite on the CPA, engage political forces that were not included in the agreement and instil among the Sudanese population a sense of ownership of the peace process”, states Ticking the box – Elections in Sudan, a report by Jort Hemmer of the Netherlands Institute for International Relations’ Conflict Research Unit.

Photo: Derk Segaar/IRIN

Southern Sudan’s President, Salva Kiir Mayardit

Opening the Juba conference, Southern Sudan’s president, Salva Kiir Mayardit, said: “I believe that the general elections, if properly conducted, shall be a critical impetus for change and empowerment of our people to choose their political leaders and elect their democratic institutions.

“If properly conducted… elections shall be a good opportunity for the Sudanese people to bring a real change through their free will as one major impetus to the process of democratic transformation,” he said, adding pointedly: “But those are two big ‘ifs’.”

Caveats

Kiir’s principal caveat concerns this year’s population census, whose results he described as “too flawed and lack[ing] the minimum acceptable level of credibility.

“Without the resolution of this issue… the election process, despite our preparedness for it, may be put in jeopardy.”

There are also concerns about the level of this “preparedness”. In late August, the Carter Center warned in a report of “serious concerns about slippage in the overall electoral calendar” as well as “delays in key operational, policy, and budgetary decisions; continued restrictions on civil liberties; and the lack of adequate reform legislation needed to fully protect the fundamental freedoms of Sudanese citizens”.

It said the “ambitious” election schedule would “only be viable” if swift steps were taken to ensure further delays are avoided.

US Special Envoy to Sudan, Scott Gration, has spoken of the many challenges for the electoral process. “Not only do all the legislative laws need to be passed, but there is also election training, voter education, the security that is involved in it, the ballot boxes, the monitoring – all those kind of issues are very, very difficult.”

In a country where many citizens have never voted in their lives, the complexity of the poll is likely to be bewildering. The election will determine the presidencies and legislatures of both the Government of National Unity and Southern Sudan, state governorships and state assemblies. Some victors will be chosen under a first-past-the-post system, others by proportional representation.

Photo: IRIN

Elections were included in a 2005 peace deal.

In a recent report, the Rift Valley Institute noted that the numerous elections and referendums held in Sudan since 1953 “have not so far produced the kind of stable yet dynamic government that the secret ballot is intended to encourage” largely because of “widespread and massive” fraud under authoritarian regimes and lack of necessary resources.

While the report argued that elections should take place in Sudan, it warned of a “strong possibility that the forthcoming election will suffer from a combination of all the weaknesses that have undermined previous elections. There is widespread public scepticism and suspicion of possible malpractice, based on people’s experience in previous authoritarian elections; and there are immense logistical challenges.

“The stakes are very high. If the election should lack credibility, it is hard to see how the Comprehensive Peace Agreement can survive,” it said.

In Ticking the Box, Hemmer wrote that “Sudan’s political context presents an extremely unfavourable environment for an open and honest competition for power.

“Contested elections that spark large-scale political violence and, in the worse case, constitute a prelude to a new war is a realistic scenario,” he added, concluding that Sudan “had much to lose and little to gain” from holding elections in 2010.

This sentiment is shared by Sudan analyst John Ashworth. “By having elections you could actually derail democracy because of the context – a ceasefire between two warring parties. It doesn’t make sense to disrupt that before the end of the interim period.”

In Brief: New report on future scenarios in Sudan

Sudan is planning to hold elections in April 2010 and a referendum on southern autonomy the following year, but beyond this the future is uncertain, says a report entitled “Sudan 2012 – Scenarios for the Future”.

The report is based on a study by Jaïr van der Lijn of the Netherland Institute of International Relations and commissioned by IKV Pax Christi and Cordaid.

Two key uncertainties will define possible scenarios in 2012 – will Sudan be united or will the North and South have gone separate ways? Or will there be a new war between the North and the South, or will there be no war?

“At present, the international community, governments, international organizations and civil society groups are primarily focused on stimulating implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement and making sure an election and referendum take place…little time is given to thinking strategically about the period after 2011. What will happen in 2012 is barely touched on,” the report says.

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